Presenter: Ming-Kai Hsu
Date: 2015/12/24
Abstract
The paper illustrates the seismic risk assessments in Italy and describes the differences deriving from the use of different approaches to calculate the losses and the influence exerted by different hazard results. Seismic risk assessment (SRA) is a key instrument of any natural disaster prevention policy, allowing one to identify areas of needed intervention and specific action item with maximum risk reduction effects. Seismic risk is usually defined as the probability of exceeding a specified level of loss for a set of goods within a reference period of time due to earthquakes. Usually risk is measured considering the convolution of three main factors: hazard (probability of earthquakes), vulnerability (probability of damage, given the earthquake) and exposure (probability of loss given the damage). Thus, the seismic risk in a geographical region depends on many uncertain variables pertaining to the three main factors listed above. Different approaches to seismic hazard estimates result in different loss estimates, which have been compared each other. Analyses pointed out the seismic hazard being a key factor, strongly influencing the loss estimates even more than the vulnerability factors.
Reference
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